Breaking news from ABC.  Florida Congressman Tim Mahoney, who ousted child predator Mark Foley in 2006, is mired in a scandal.

From  ABC:

West Palm Beach Congressman Tim Mahoney (D-FL), whose predecessor resigned in the wake of a sex scandal, agreed to a $121,000 payment to a former mistress who worked on his staff and was threatening to sue him, according to current and former members of his staff who have been briefed on the settlement, which involved Mahoney and his campaign committee.

The affair between Congressman Tim Mahoney and Patricia Allen began, according to current and former staffers, in 2006 when Mahoney was campaigning for Congress against Foley, promising "a world that is safer, more moral."
(ABC News)

Mahoney, who is married, also promised the woman, Patricia Allen, a $50,000 a year job for two years at the agency that handles his campaign advertising, the staffers said.
http://abcnews.go.com/Blotter/story?id=5 997043&page=1

Mahoney was already in a tough race, and his campaign was heavily focused on "faith and family."  This will all but certainly hand the election to his opponent.

I'm tired of Democratic politicians putting their libido ahead of their party.  They should know the consequences of their actions, and if they decide that an affair is more important than the Democratic Party, they need to leave politics.

Fuck you, Tim Mahoney.

Obama cancelled a campaign stop in North Dakota several weeks ago to focus on more critical states more likely to produce electoral votes. In some cases, there is no polling to speak of.

But the Fargo Forum today issued a poll showing Obama with a 45-43 lead over McCain. While that is a statistical dead heat, it has to be unwelcome news to McCain's campaign.

North Dakota only has 3 electoral votes, but a break in one very red state suggests others may be moving as well. The Forum poll and story are at: http://tinyurl.com/3sjko7

I seem to be hearing this of the country but where I live, in the PA09th, that is, The middle of the base of the Pennsylvania "T", including all of Blair, Bedford, Fulton, Franklin, and Huntington Counties, and parts of Cumberland,Cambria, Clearfield, Fayette, Indiana, Juniata, Mifflin, Somerset, Perry, and Westmorland Counties, Republicans are running for cover and hiding.

For example, our Congressman Bill Shuster (R-PA09) has refused four different invitations to debate.  Check the video

but wait there's more

Reading Bill Kristol's colunmn in today's New York Times, I had the following thoughts...

1.  I think his column today is a trial balloon. It looks like a plant from the McCain camp.

2.  It underscores the rock and a hard place position that McCain has put himself in.

3.  If McCain follows Kristol's advice, does a little mea culpa, and then moves on in a positive tone it creates huge problems for him:

   A.  Anything even the slightest bit negative will ring of hypocricy, and the MSM will take great pleasure in calling McCain on it.

   B.  It undermines McCain's unique value proposition, "seasoned judgement."  If he has such good judgment, why did he choose to run his brand, and his campaign into the ground with negative attacks, which he concedes was the wrong thing to do?

4.  If McCain continues as is, then only some kind of earth shattering external event can bring him within reach.  This could be another attempt by Bin Laden to influence the election, or it could be some truly disturbing dirt on Obama, but it has to be of that magnitude.

5.  My prediction...  McCain will do a little of both.  He will not attack Obama on Wednesday, and he will try to take a more positive tone, but he will not issue any mea culpa, and it will be framed by EVERYONE except his immediate campaign staff as a last failed opportunity to change the trajectory of the election.

Stability is the consistent name of the game this season.  Barack Obama has proven himself stable in the face of John McCain's erratic behavior, but Obama also has proven himself consistent in his lead of McCain.

The morning trackers are out.  Rasmussen shows a steady race:

Obama 50
McCain 45

Rasmussen observes:

The data continues to suggest a very stable race with Obama as the clear frontrunner. This is the eighteenth straight day that Obama's support has stayed in the narrow range from 50% to 52% while McCain has been at 44% of 45%

Research 2000/Daily Kos similarly shows a steady race:

Obama 52
McCain 40

DemFromCT notes:

Obama's percentage has been at or above 50 since 9/29.

Battleground/GWU similarly calls it a steady race with their numbers the same as they were at the last report:

Obama 51
McCain 43

Diageo Hotline has its numbers out:

Obama 48
McCain 42

Significantly, I think, the poll observes, "The IL Sen. leads 51-38% among LVs in CO, MI, NH, NM, NV, FL, OH, PA, VA and WI."

WORLDWIDE SHORTAGE OF CAT FOOD LOOMS

The UN Committee on World Hunger reported that demand for cat food, mainly in industrialized countries, has soared, resulting in severe shortages. In the United States, supply problems and higher prices have been particularly prevalent in Florida and Arizona, but officials note that problems exist throughout the country.

Social agencies have reported that many of its senior clients are suffering from early stages of malnutrition. Complaints of price gouging have risen dramatically and several states have enacted laws and are imposing fines. The Association of Community Senior Centers has called for congressional hearings.

Several pet food manufacturers are working round the clock and all deny any unwarranted price increases.

A spokesman for AARP issued a statement that, although acknowledging that the world is overrun with too many cats, there is no truth to the rumor that it is preparing a cookbook with recipes for cooking cats.

homer   www.altara.blogspot.com

Poltifact.com has given a long analysis of the ties the McCain campaign has made between William Ayers and Obama, the major one being that they ran a "radical education group" together.

They are referring to the Chicago Annenberg Challenge (founded by conservative multi-billionaire Walter Annenberg's organization), where Obama served on the Board from 1995 until it's dissolution in 2001 and where he was Chairman for 4 years.

Crossposted at Motley Moose

Quick diary to alert everyone that McCain might well take another impetuous maverick move before the debate on Wednesday.

The balloon has been hoisted up by Bill Kristol in today's New York Times:

It's time for John McCain to fire his campaign.

He has nothing to lose. His campaign is totally overmatched by Obama's. The Obama team is well organized, flush with resources, and the candidate and the campaign are in sync. The McCain campaign, once merely problematic, is now close to being out-and-out dysfunctional. Its combination of strategic incoherence and operational incompetence has become toxic. If the race continues over the next three weeks to be a conventional one, McCain is doomed.

Over at Fivethirtyeight Nate Silver has been reading the runes...