Obama's Coat Tails Strategy

As we know, Barack Obama is already playing in the red states, having bought ad time in states such as Alaska, Georgia, Indiana, Missouri, Montana, North Dakota, and Virginia among others.

Now, many have questioned the wisdom of this, wondering if it's a smart move to spend money in states there's no way he can win, but the Obama campaign gets that the compete everywhere ethic at the heart of the 50-state strategy isn't always about winning the state at the presidential level. It's also about making the other side expend resources to defend states they've never had to before and it's about impacting the down-ticket races where campaigning really matters.

As this Ben Smith piece makes clear, the Obama campaign is looking to accrue electoral benefits for Democrats in November at the most local of levels.

Barack Obama will focus his resources largely in 14 states George W. Bush won in 2004, his chief field operative said Tuesday, hoping to score upsets in places such as Virginia, Indiana and Georgia.

But winning the White House won't be his only goal, deputy campaign manager Steve Hildebrand told Politico: In an unusual move, Obama's campaign will also devote some resources to states it's unlikely to win, with the goal of influencing specific local contests in places such as Texas and Wyoming.

"Texas is a great example where we might not be able to win the state, but we want to pay a lot of attention to it," Hildebrand said. "It's one of the most important redistricting opportunities in the country."

Texas Democrats are five seats away in each chamber from control of the state Legislature, which will redraw congressional districts after the 2010 census.

In Wyoming, Democrat Gary Trauner, running for the state's sole congressional seat, lost narrowly against an incumbent in 2006 and is now seeking an open seat.

"If we can register more Democrats, if we can increase the Democratic performance and turnout, maybe we can pick up a congressional seat," Hildebrand said.

Hildebrand's plans underscore the unusual scope and ambition of Obama's campaign, which can relatively cheaply extend its massive volunteer and technological resources into states which won't necessarily produce electoral votes.

While on the campaign trail Obama may avoid sharp partisan language and play up the virtue of working across the aisle with Republicans, actions do indeed speak louder, and it's become more and more clear to me that he fully understands that real change will only happen the fewer Republicans there are in office at every level.



Display:


Re: Obama's Coat Tails Strategy (none / 0)

I think this is a pretty effective strategy, kinda like what David Paterson's doing in New York State and it seems like it will be a pretty effective strategy.

It's also very civil, which goes along with Obama's message.

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by Seth Pearce on Wed Jun 25, 2008 at 12:25:06 PM EST

It tells me it's not all about him... (2.00 / 2)

...it's about the Party.

And that's what I'm glad to have found in our nominee.


I attended PUMACon '08!!!
by iohs2008 on Wed Jun 25, 2008 at 12:28:08 PM EST

Re: It tells me it's not all about him... (2.00 / 3)

Amen.  Another aspect of the 50 state strategy is to make some of these red tinted states true toss ups (and turn some dark red into tinted red) in 2016 or 2020 by building a presence where we didn't used to have one. Ignoring these states only serves to keep them out of reach.

BO cares about the future success of the agenda, not just his career ambition.  Dig it!


Government derives its power from those that it governs.
by lockewasright on Wed Jun 25, 2008 at 01:44:24 PM EST
[ Parent ]

No way he can win??!! (2.00 / 1)

Poblano (fivethirtyeight.com) has every one of those states as a tossup. And with the overwhelmingly democratic leaning (2:1) millennials increasing their share of voting age population by 70%, they could tip all of those states plus quite a few more.


by Phil In Denver on Wed Jun 25, 2008 at 12:29:18 PM EST

Re: Obama's Coat Tails Strategy (none / 0)

This is another good reason for the matching funds opt-out.

I am distressed over Al Franken's current position though, and I hope he cares as much about helping candidates in blue states.


by JoeFelice on Wed Jun 25, 2008 at 12:31:52 PM EST

Franken's gonna do fine. (none / 0)

What are you suggesting, by the way?


John McCain, maverick
by lojasmo on Wed Jun 25, 2008 at 03:17:08 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Exactly (2.00 / 2)

Had John Kerry done better in OK and KY, we might not have to deal with Tom Coburn and Jim Bunning in the Senate.

It's not just about getting 270 Electoral College votes; it's about getting 60+ Senate Democrats and 250+ House Democrats.  A President needs a receptive Congress.


by Brad G on Wed Jun 25, 2008 at 12:32:30 PM EST

Re: Obama's Coat Tails Strategy (2.00 / 1)

I'm not sure how a strategy of electing more Blue Dogs while at the same time watering down your presidential rhetoric to Steny Hoyer levels is going to lead to a more progressive America, but that's what party leaders sems to want.

Victory at any cost.


by Upstate Dem on Wed Jun 25, 2008 at 12:33:55 PM EST

Re: Obama's Coat Tails Strategy (none / 0)

Isn't this the same strategy Karl Rove adopted at the end of the 2000 campaign when he sent his candidate to California and (I believe) New Jersey, to the sounds of great mockery from our side? And with the universal post-election conclusion from political scientists that it cost him the election (or at least forced him to steal it)?

Just curious ... is there ANYTHING Obama can do that is wrong? Anything?

Mindless cheerleading is boring, self-defeating, and in the end, destructive of any influence the netroots has built up.


by ColoradoGuy on Wed Jun 25, 2008 at 12:34:13 PM EST

Re: Obama's Coat Tails Strategy (none / 0)

Yeah, but the Repubs controlled the Senate for another six years, so didn't it work? I see your point but it looks like Obama is hedging his bets here. Even if he loses, the Dems will probably pick up seats. I mean, hell, can you imagine how neutered a McCain Presidency would be if there were 55+ Democratic Senators?


A PROUD Hopium user!
by xodus1914 on Wed Jun 25, 2008 at 12:54:12 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama's Coat Tails Strategy (2.00 / 2)

"Just curious ... is there ANYTHING Obama can do that is wrong? Anything?"

I really don't get the mentality of people that say these types of things. Far as I can see, I've never met an Obama supporter who things the guy is omnipotent or perfect.

Just for you, here's 2 things I disagree with Obama on:

1) 5 years ago he came out strongly in support of the decriminalization of marijuana. So many law enforcement resources are wasted on such trivial "offenses". However, as it became apparant he was going to run for the big office, he backed away from that support.

2) He expressed support for the so-called "compromise" (capitulation) FISA bill. Though if he actually gets Telco Immunity stripped from the final bill, as he said he will work to do, then I'll certainly forgive him for this one.

There's other things too I don't agree with.

But why are some people apparantly so bitter that we have a candidate that people are so enthusiastic about? When was the last time we could say that as Democrats?


Two riders were approaching......the wind begins to howl!
by John in Chicago on Wed Jun 25, 2008 at 12:57:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama's Coat Tails Strategy (none / 0)

<quote>I really don't get the mentality of people that say these types of things. Far as I can see, I've never met an Obama supporter who things the guy is omnipotent or perfect.</quote>

You might want to check into getting some new glasses  for reading your computer.   There are lots of Obama supporters who are in vocal and stunned disbelief if you suggest that he is anything less than Wondrous and that you just must not Get It if you don't see his appeal.

<quote>But why are some people apparantly so bitter that we have a candidate that people are so enthusiastic about?</quote>   Enthusiastic?  Speak for yourself.   I haven't been this unenthusiastic about a Democratic candidate in 36 years.  And given that Mondale and Dukakis were two of them, that's a pretty pathetically low bar.

Obama's basic premise of "transformation" and "post partisanship" is about as bogus as a three dollar bill.  Whether the dude is extremely cynical or profoundly naive, I really can't say.

The enthusiasm for Obama reminds me of little so much as an adolescent hormone-fueled crush.
 


by InigoMontoya on Wed Jun 25, 2008 at 01:33:42 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Thanks for sharing! (none / 0)


by JJE on Wed Jun 25, 2008 at 01:40:06 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Thanks for sharing! (none / 0)

And also to you.  

"That's not the table-for-one sign!"


by InigoMontoya on Wed Jun 25, 2008 at 08:45:12 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama's Coat Tails Strategy (none / 0)

Let's see with the swing state strategy we've had 2 Grandpa Ronnie presidencies, 1 Boosh the barely literate and 2 Boosh the Illiterate presidencies and netted 2 Billy C. presidencies.  If you propose that we stick with that level of electoral success then, as much as I loved the Clinton era, I suggest that you may be confused as to which of the parties in this conversation is mindless.


Government derives its power from those that it governs.
by lockewasright on Wed Jun 25, 2008 at 01:58:35 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama's Coat Tails Strategy (none / 0)

If you can find a point in my post where I'm challenging the 50-state strategy in my post, then yours makes sense.  Good luck with that.

I was commenting on the preceding post.


by InigoMontoya on Wed Jun 25, 2008 at 08:44:43 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama's Coat Tails Strategy (none / 0)

Oops.  My comment posted in the wrong spot.  My bad.


Government derives its power from those that it governs.
by lockewasright on Thu Jun 26, 2008 at 08:16:09 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama's Coat Tails Strategy (none / 0)

Have you not seen some of the criticism he has been getting over FISA? Look, if he has the resources why not speculate? In 2000 even Bush was restricted to the same cash as Gore in the general. Their idea was to get Gore to worry about CA in the hope he would ignore other places where Bush had a better chance of winning but the Dems didn't bite. Hopefully McCain will. Plus, it isn't like Obama is running ads in 50 states, just a select few they think they can win. There is plenty of polling available that supports this decision. Oh, and constant harping is just as counter productive as incessant cheerleading. But if you are bored you know where the door is.


by conspiracy on Wed Jun 25, 2008 at 01:04:42 PM EST
[ Parent ]

No comparison. (2.00 / 1)

1.  We'll be flushed with cash.  Putting it all in a handful of "swing states" turns into diminishing returns.

2.  They won't be flush with cash.  Forcing them to put money in our longshot bids stretches them thinner elsewhere.

3.  This will be a landslide election.  Putting money every could potentially get us a huge Congressional majority.

4.  We are likely to win.  By a significant margin.  Electoral college math only matters in close election (remember, Gore's popular vote margin over Bush was only 0.5%).  Therefore, maximizing gains down-ballot (particularly in the Senate) is really important.  More important, in fact, than running up the margins in the electoral college.


by Ramo on Wed Jun 25, 2008 at 01:05:17 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Furthermore... (2.00 / 1)

The 2000 trips to California and NJ were criticized because they were so late in the game.  There's reasons to believe that these states are could be in play...an early visit could help all the more.  Indiana, Virginia, North Carolina, and Georgia are all treasure troves of EV's.  Indiana's been closer in most polls than California ever was in 2000.  


by thurst on Wed Jun 25, 2008 at 04:52:52 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama's Coat Tails Strategy (2.00 / 1)

There's a difference between wasting resources at the tail end of a campaign and building support throughout the campaign.  I mean, if Obama spends the week before the GE in Alabama and Idaho, that's probably a dumb move.  Anyway, maybe you can provide a link for your position, because I have a hard time believing that it's as simple as you make it out to be.  

Besides, what is your preferred strategy, anyway?  


by rfahey22 on Wed Jun 25, 2008 at 01:43:37 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Strategy (2.00 / 1)

At the end of the day, I don't think even Obama expects to win Mississippi, but we have a senate candidate who might and considering how weak the Republican appears, boosting Democratic turnout could flip this seat. The game goes for Kay Hagan in North Carolina, Gary Trauner in Wyoming and Mark Begich and Ethan Berkowitz in Alaska. The reason California was such a mistake for Bush is that Karl Rove truly believed the "State of Cliton" would actually go Republican.

There is also a difference betwene time and money. Bush WENT to NJ and CA, I don't think Obama will travel to Wyoming, but if they have the cash to spend on ads and organizing without starving swing states, why not?


by RandyMI on Wed Jun 25, 2008 at 03:54:19 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama's Coat Tails Strategy (2.00 / 2)

To me one of the most interesting things in that story was the reference to redistricting in Texas. Now that's something that would be done by the Texas state legislature in 2011!  

If the Dems can take the TX legislature they can gerrymand (well, let's just call it redistrict) to add several Dems to the TX Congressional delegation in addition to whatever overall addition the increase in the Democratic share of the popular votes might achieve.

In short, the Obama team is thinking not just locally and about the current election but also long-term, including wiping out the Tom DeLay legacy.


by Juris on Wed Jun 25, 2008 at 12:52:35 PM EST

Re: Obama's Coat Tails Strategy (2.00 / 2)

Heck, it's Texas.  If we don't like the redistricting in 2011, we can do it in 2013, and 2015, and 2017?  Tom DeLay said so!


by David in NY on Wed Jun 25, 2008 at 01:14:17 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama's Coat Tails Strategy (none / 0)

friggin' bug man...


Government derives its power from those that it governs.
by lockewasright on Thu Jun 26, 2008 at 08:20:05 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama's Coat Tails Strategy (2.00 / 1)

What running in 50 states does is stop swift boat stupidity from taking root in the 34 states Kerry was not running in.  It allows Obama to stomp on such nonsense.  If he were not running in 50 states the various internet rumors would have fertile ground in which to fester.


by Eli Rabett on Wed Jun 25, 2008 at 12:57:28 PM EST

Re: Obama's Coat Tails Strategy (none / 0)

Very , very good point. Hannity, Rush and co, are finding it hard to gain traction in GOP markets because Obama has people on the ground. I'm sure that the local Democratic candidates don't mind, since the Rethugs had such great sucess against Democratic Candidates in the spring by making them all look like Obama supporters.....LOL....


A PROUD Hopium user!
by xodus1914 on Wed Jun 25, 2008 at 01:22:49 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama's Coat Tails Strategy (2.00 / 2)

Sometimes it feels like we actually got the Dean candidate we wanted in 2004, just 4 years later and without the yelling ;)


Tony Romo for Secretary of Awesome
by kasjogren on Wed Jun 25, 2008 at 01:11:49 PM EST

Another benefit to this strategy (2.00 / 1)

When we talk about forcing the Republicans to expend resources in areas they normally take for granted, most people are thinking about money. But we mustn't forget the other resource a campaign needs: operatives and organizers.

When the field is spread the GOP has to spread out their operatives in more states. That means less of a chance for them to pull some hanky-panky in certain states.

In 2000 and 2004 the GOP only had to concentrate there efforts on 3-4 states. So they dumped a ton of operatives into Florida, Ohio and the others. The result were elections that were obviously flawed in ways that were favorable to Republicans.

When those operatives have to spread out to 14 states they can't coordinate as well and thus it becomes harder for them to "rig" things in their favor.

In battlefield terms, when you fight on multiple fronts it becomes that much harder to allocate your limited number of spies and provocateurs in an effective way.


by Chris Andersen on Wed Jun 25, 2008 at 01:57:20 PM EST

Re: Obama's Coat Tails Strategy (none / 0)

Alaska, Georgia, Montana -- Is he nuts?

I guess if you are literally bathing in dough, which the Obama campaign delightfully likes to tell us they are, its okay to squander money on "feel good" projects like "I hope that helps that Democratic Sheriff in Anchorage win!"

But, if Obama loses the national election, it will be decisions like these that will be seriously questioned.

I've been in television and advertising all of my life.  You simply do not squander money in places where you can't compete.  This is an insane move.


by krj47 on Wed Jun 25, 2008 at 02:26:39 PM EST

Re: Obama's Coat Tails Strategy (2.00 / 1)

And I thought there was a senate seat in play in Alaska. Isn't there?

Second question: if you want to gain market share don't you have to raise visibility before you get people to choose. Is that squandering? Or a long term strategy?

And if Obama wins then decisions like these will be hailed as inspired. perhaps this is not the time for the strategy that we used to lose the last two elections.


by holder on Wed Jun 25, 2008 at 03:56:22 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Sheriff in Anchorage? (none / 0)

Do you live in a cave? There is a top tier senate race there.


by RandyMI on Wed Jun 25, 2008 at 03:56:29 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Sheriff in Anchorage? (2.00 / 2)

Not a cave, in television I think he/she mentioned.

Many similarities but better color saturation.


by holder on Wed Jun 25, 2008 at 03:59:03 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Oh (none / 0)

Makes me think of all those Democratic media consultants who gouge Democratic candidates with their buy commissions. And since they still got the same inflated rates, they never got their acts together no matter how badly they sucked.


by RandyMI on Wed Jun 25, 2008 at 04:03:06 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Sheriff in Anchorage (2.00 / 4)

By the way, I know of a lady who was just Marin County, CA Supervisor, then she was elected to Congress, and now she chair the Senate Committee on the Envronment. Her name is Barbara Boxer. I know a former Detroit City Councilman who now chairs the Senate Armed Services Committee. His name is Carl Levin. Finally, I remember a some guy who taught colleges courses at a small university who became a national figure on progressive issues. That was Paul Wellstone. So that Sheriff you mention could one day be elected to higher office, just like that former Indidana sheriff named Brad Ellsworth.


by RandyMI on Wed Jun 25, 2008 at 04:11:35 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Sheriff in Anchorage (none / 0)

Outstanding sir, outstanding!


by conspiracy on Wed Jun 25, 2008 at 06:23:49 PM EST
[ Parent ]

David Broder Can't Handle It (none / 0)

I'm not joking, he is literally having issues over the idea that a Democrat is actually CONFIDENT enough to take the fight to the Republicans as is calling Obama arrogant (just like Karl Rove). The DC Beltway crowd can't handle an uppity Democrat.


by RandyMI on Wed Jun 25, 2008 at 03:59:48 PM EST

Re: Obama's Coat Tails Strategy (none / 0)

Are you saying VA is a red state?

soon to have 2 Dem Senators and a popular Dem gov. VA is a classic purple state.

Missouri and Montana (to a lesser extent) are too.


by glutz78 on Wed Jun 25, 2008 at 05:50:30 PM EST


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